Why didn't I get a PhD in history and
float over all of the world in the Navy? I would've gotten to see
weird foreign places like Helsinki, Minsk and...Moscow? Anyway,
here's another piece from Plymouth that gives a cute look inside at
the goings on in the Kremlin.
But first, you must be ejemucated and
here's how it was explained to me:
When the US desires to get rid of a
particular cabal/gov't in a country, it tries to use the subtlest
means possible. Loud, destructive revolutions that include gunfire,
bombs and nightly news coverage are far too messy and invites
inspection. It is far more brilliant to do it on the sly and without
much fanfare. What you do is find all the unhappy people in the
government make it known to them that you're on “their side” and
you provide them with all sorts of things like money,
frequency-hopping/encrypted cell phones and promises of a nice job
in new gov't If you can't entice them, you black mail them into
doing your bidding. They might be still unhappy with their homeland
gov't but not motivated enough to do much, so you pressure them into
action by telling them you have evidence of their contacting Western
intell or some other ugly criminal things the gov't there would be
very unhappy about if they knew.
“We've been trying to unseat Putin
and install a pro-Western guy...but it ain't working. Putin knows the
game and he's acted on one part of the plan. He's gutting from gov't
those he knows are planning to stab him in the back politically. The
guys he's gotten rid people that were, perhaps(wink!) working for
us.” says my friend.
**
Putin's Discovered Check Mate: The King
Hunt Move.
In recent weeks, rumors that Russian
Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev will be replaced have been
circulating among Russian media and pundits who watch Moscow. We have
been monitoring the Russian government's coherence and the strength
of its leader, President Vladimir Putin, as the country faces a
series of crises involving its faltering economy and tensions with
the West over Ukraine. Although Kolokoltsev is of little consequence
as a personality, the office he holds oversees one of the most
powerful tools for anyone seeking political power in Russia: a
significant part of the country's internal surveillance apparatus.
Analysis
Rumors that Kolokoltsev has been forced
to resign first appeared Oct. 29 on Russia's Dozhd (Rain) television
and were picked up by Pravda, RIA Novosti and other Russian media
outlets before becoming a topic of chatter for Russian pundits. Dozhd
cited sources within the Defense Ministry, though the exact status of
Kolokoltsev's position was not made clear. Dozhd is one of the last
independent television stations in Russia (which is allied with
Western intell) and has reported such rumors before. But even when
the details of Dozhd's reporting have been off, the television
station's coverage of leaks from inside the Kremlin have pointed to
actual problems.
Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov
acknowledged the rumors but did not confirm or deny them. However,
this week Kolokoltsev attended the Interpol General Assembly in
Monaco as Russia's interior minister. There, he acted as if his
situation were normal, giving interviews on Russia's willingness to
help combat various global issues such as cybercrime. After
Kolokoltsev's appearance, the Russian media are now speculating that
he will resign in the near future, possibly after Russia's Day of
Police on Nov. 10 -- a holiday celebrating the country's police,
which Kolokoltsev oversees and from whose ranks he was promoted.
On a technical level, Kolokoltsev has
been one of Russia's better interior ministers since taking office in
2012, understanding the operations of the police forces and interior
troops. His reforms of the various forces have been viewed positively
in Russia. But Kolokoltsev himself is not important, and whether he
resigns will have little impact on the country. What is more
important is the actual position of interior minister -- and which of
the Kremlin's power circles wields influence over that official.
Russia's Interior Ministry is one of
the most powerful ministries in the country. As with most European
interior ministries, it is responsible for internal security,
overseeing local and federal police forces, paramilitary units and
investigations. The ministry's paramilitary troops -- which number
around 200,000 -- are some of the best-trained and best-equipped
armed forces in Russia. They have ample combat experience, with an
excellent record of service in various conflicts in the North
Caucasus, most notably in the Ukraine. They were exceedingly
effective at decimating the pro-western forces that sought to
overthrow it. These are the military types you want backing you in
you're in power in the Kremlin.
Russian Intelligence Services and
Responsibilities
Traditionally, Russia's intelligence
services have been aligned with or have overseen the Interior
Ministry. During the Czarist era, the ministry controlled the
gendarmes and the secret police. In the early Soviet period, Felix
Dzerzhinsky -- founder of the feared Cheka secret police, the
precursor to the KGB -- became the first Soviet interior minister and
head of the secret police.
This arrangement has led the Federal
Security Service, or FSB, to view the Interior Ministry's forces as
its own armed wing, so it does not have to rely on the Russian
military -- which is overseen by competing factions -- for influence.
However, the FSB's control over the ministry has wavered in recent
years.
Kolokoltsev's predecessor, Rashid
Nurgaliyev, was in charge of internal affairs at the FSB before
becoming interior minister. Thus, he ran the ministry and its forces
with political motivations instead of a domestic security strategy.
Kolokoltsev, on the other hand, was a police officer and later
Moscow's police commissioner before stepping into the ministry. He
was seen as a technocrat who was not involved in the Kremlin clans'
power struggle. Because of the change in leadership, the FSB -- and
other security factions, such as the Investigative Committee -- have
been struggling with the Interior Ministry in recent years over
several choice prizes, such as control over the Main Directorate of
Economic Security and Anti-Corruption, which comes with more tools
for investigating economic crimes. Thus, Kolokoltsev's premature
withdrawal could be part of the FSB's efforts to re-exert control
over the Interior Ministry.
However, the rumored choice for
Kolokoltsev's replacement points to an even more important and
dangerous struggle involving Putin. Leaks to the Russian media have
indicated that First Deputy Interior Minister Viktor Zolotov will be
chosen as Kolokoltsev's replacement. Though Zolotov is already in the
Interior Ministry, he is also the former head of the Federal
Protective Service, Putin's personal security detail that is the
Russian version of the U.S. Secret Service. Zolotov was the personal
bodyguard of Putin's mentor, Anatoly Sobchak, in St. Petersburg,
where he met Putin. Zolotov is directly loyal to Putin and not part
of the other security circles in the Kremlin. He is not known to have
been “turned” by Western intelligence and would be difficult to
do so, knowing his personality profile.
Such a replacement would put a Putin
loyalist directly in charge of one of the most important security
forces and mechanisms in the country, keeping it out of the hands of
the other various security circles, such as the FSB.
At a time when Russia is facing a
series of crises that could erode Putin's popularity and leadership,
this possible reshuffle has heightened importance. If more
indications emerge of an impending change at the top of the Interior
Ministry, they will reveal Putin's awareness over the ability of the
security circles, particularly the FSB, to influence the ministry,
which, in turn, have been influenced by mostly German/NATO agents. A
reshuffle will also highlight Putin's desire to shore up his direct
control over some of the country's most powerful tools. If
successful, we will have lost a an angle we've been working on that
could have given us control over Putin's succeeding elections as
President.
**
Another Fly in the Ointment:
Since the US was found to have been
directly behind the uprisings in the Ukraine, Putin has responded by
dusting off and practicing the country's nuclear response. This has
included the restarting of the old “practice runs” at the US by
the latest Backfire and older Bear bombers. These planes do not have
to get over the US nor reach it's borders in order to be effective.
They carry nuclear tipped cruise missiles that can penetrate 2,000
miles into US territory. Shooting down an antiquated Bear bomber is
not much of a problem IF it is close enough to the US. If it's 1,100
miles away over the Atlantic, it becomes a major problem then. As
for knocking down a hyper-sonic cruise missile, the US has yet to
develop technology to do that.
The other and more tangible reason for
these flights are that these planes are packed with electronic
warfare equipment that is able to collect a ton of useful information
(radar station frequencies, locations, communication channels of the
US defense network and response times).
A few months ago Putin paid a visit to
few Latin American countries. On that trip, Russia wrote off some 90%
of Cuban debt. What does he get in exchange of that move? Simple,
Russia will restart the Lourdes SIGINT station in Cuba. Yes, a spy
station 90 miles away from the US plus refueling stations for the
Russian Air Force to continue these flights.
This isn't one of ours.
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